25 March 2020

Biden and Trump flip-flopping for favouritism in US presidential race


As the US gears up for election season, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are currently joint favourites to become the next President of the United States.

Both Trump and Biden are currently trading at 46% on Smarkets to win the presidential election, while Biden remains the clear front-runner in the Democratic race with 89% to Bernie Sanders’ 2%.

Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has supposedly hindered his chances of a second term in the Oval Office, having previously traded at 60% to remain president.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, commented: “President Trump’s daily media briefings on the coronavirus outbreak are some of the most serious of his presidency. How he handles this global crisis, and its effect on his much-cherished American economy, will be fresh in the electorate’s mind come November, should the 2020 election go ahead as planned. If he shuts down the US for months, the economy will be damaged, if he reopens it after a few weeks, lives could be put at risk.

“November’s election, which last traded at 81% to happen on Smarkets, looks set to be between Trump and Joe Biden, who remains a clear 89% favourite to win the Democratic nomination, despite dropping slightly from a high of 94%. Bernie Sanders’ candidacy looks increasingly futile and he might pull out of the race in the forthcoming weeks.

“He may not have won the nomination, but Biden is flip-flopping with Trump for favouritism on our next president market, with both men at the 45-46% mark.

“Smarkets users clearly think that Biden has what it takes to become president, or perhaps that the current situation will tarnish the incumbent’s image enough to make him an untenable candidate.

“The President said, he ‘cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself’ – the issue is that both options on the table could impede his path to victory.”
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